Things are grim financially for dot-coms.

Well...duh.

You can't try to make millions of dollars out of thin air, although it's a pleasantly optimistic thought. What it ends up boiling down to is that when some people are making money out of thin air, some people's money is disappearing into thin air. This has absolutely, absolutely nothing to do with the viability of the Internet or high-technology -- but more on that in a bit.

I had an interesting set of conversations with some friends lately where we were attempting to fix the blame for the rollercoaster ride that has been tech stocks for the last few years: at first I wanted to blame individual investors. Individualized trading has without a doubt completely changed the economic landscape...and I think it's for the worse. Institutional investors spend their whole careers on the market and have a solid grasp of the companies involved and their technologies. They make investments based on careful analyses and poised thought and they can see through superficial press releases. Individual investors tend to have day jobs and do a little trading on the side. Consequently, they don't have time to acquire a detailed understanding of the markets they are trading in. This, in turn, leads them to be subject to believe every last press release, rumor, and hype around a company or industry. This is NOT healthy for the market.

BUT, the argument goes further (courtesy of my friends), why are they investing? Well, because they can, courtesy eTrade, Datek, Ameritrade, and such kin -- and such firms have gone out of their way to tell people that they can make LOTS of money by investing in the market, encouraging millions of Americans to begin individual trading. So, to a significant degree they are at fault.

But, it was pointed out, there is a culprit even beyond them, a culprit clearly at fault for the whole situation: mass media.

Even at the start, when things were beginning to really explode and Jupiter and Forrester began releasing their reports on growth full of hyperbole and optimistic exaggeration, technologists felt a flattered, but a little uneasy. It was clear from the start where it would all go: overhype always leads to a perceived crash. It's what the media likes. It's their formula.

Take some X ('X' being a person, industry sector, company, or technology) that is doing reasonably well. Hype up X until you've gotten everyone very excited about it and convinced it'll revolutionize the planet; tell people you knew all the time that X was going to be great. Supporters of X won't fight against the unmerited attention - who would do that? Then, after a little pause, begin to question the popularity of X and its long-term viability. Meticulously and warily document "the rise and fall of X" -- people dislike, but usually trust, skeptics. Sure enough, X will find it has begun to lose some favor with investors and partners and can't really oppose the decline, since the overhype was never really justified in the first place. The whole giant perceived rollercoaster of X may have absolutely nothing at all to do with X's true viability.

This is, indeed, exactly what we saw happen with the Net. It's doing just fine, thank you. Next-generation applications are still be advanced and deployed. It is, currently, no future hype or hyperbole needed, really frigging incredible. In fact, I just wrote a little bit about how Google is now an extension of my brain. This is the here and now.

Internet usage continues to grow - broadband is rapidly penetrating in Europe, which should really shake things up: due to high billing of local toll calls (as previously mentioned by many other folks) people don't have "always-on" Internet access. Flat-rate broadband is going frigging tear through the European continent. And did I mention the fiber-optic utility play that's going to take everyone by surprise in the next few years?

The Net is doing just fine, thank you very much. Yes, stocks are tanking. Yes, dot-coms are getting trashed by the media. Yes, people (my best friend included) are getting laid off. Yes, the easy money is gone. Does that have anything to do with the quality of the technology, the progress of its advance, or even its popularity?

No.

Maybe the giant profits will come later. Maybe the gleaming reporting will come back. Mabye investors will flock again to dot-coms soon. But in one sense, I don't really care. I'm a technologist; I'll figure out how to pay rent. Let me and my brethren (and sistren) build and get out of the way with your silly news articles.

Ladies and gentlemen, the death of the Internet has been greatly exaggerated.